2024 Market Research Blog
State of the US Economy
We have come down from the high of job openings in January 2022 of nearly 12 million jobs, where that number represented double the amount of openings as there were unemployed people (5M). Whereas, in 2023, the numbers were about equal, at approximately 9M apiece. This year we see a slight skew in favor of job openings (8.9M) over unemployed persons (6.5M), suggesting that those looking for work are still in the better position.
Thankfully, after several years of rampant inflation that led to massive increases in cost of living, we see the first year where these numbers have moderated. Specifically, only a 3.2 % COLA adjustment for 2024, with most of the regions we staff in following a similar trend: San Diego = 3.8%, Napa = 2.4%, Sacramento = 2.9% and OC/LA = 3.4%.
Regional Data
We conduct Monthly Market Research by searching and logging open positions for Athletic Trainers in the regions we staff. For this year, we utilized both manual and AI approaches, both showing the same results, which encourages us towards the optimization of this task with AI moving forward. Below is a summary table of the data collected from those searches. Despite utilizing AI to determine trends, asses for variances, or identify any comparative analysis, it was not able to find anything statistically significant worth reporting.
However, one notable observation that emerged prominently was the decline in mean wages compared to our 2023 research. We attribute this to a potential equilibrium reached between supply and demand, or perhaps organizations seeking Athletic Trainers discontinuing their search altogether. Specifically, we observed these shifts:
San Diego: a 2% decrease
Sacramento: a 2% decrease
Napa/SF: a 1.4% decrease
LA/OC: a 4% decrease
ATvantage offered an hourly compensation rate of $31-$37/hr ($32-$38 in Napa/SF) during the same time period these opportunities were listed. The data suggests that our compensation rates were higher than the mean hourly rates provided in all other data sets, as ours is $34.00 ($35.00 in Napa/SF). It was 6% higher in San Diego, 9% higher in Sacramento, 1% lower in Napa/SF), 4% higher in LA/OC.
We use hourly rates for comparing data because it's the most fair way to do so. ATvantage follows the same method as the Bureau of Labor & Statistics in determining hourly rates. They calculate annual wages by multiplying the hourly mean wage by 2,080 hours, representing full-time work for a year. For positions without hourly wages, they calculate the annual wage from survey data. We use this approach because our contracts are not for 2,080 hours, and our positions are non-exempt, meaning all hours worked are compensated, including overtime.
Indeed, when juxtaposing the anticipated Cost of Living Allowance (COLA) increase and the prevailing trend of decreasing market conditions for the year 2024, it appears that they may effectively offset each other. This analysis suggests that in certain instances, the projected COLA adjustments and inflationary pressures could potentially result in a reduction in salary compensation for the upcoming year.
NATA Salary Comparison
The NATA released new Salary Survey data that was taken in 2023. With it, we see the following new information:
The national average salary is $68,907, with District 8 (where CA resides) being $85,222.
Those with a Bachelor degree are averaging $69 more per year in their salary than those with a masters ($66,614 & $66,545 respectively). Whereas those with a doctorate are averaging $89,507.
Secondary school, Athletics Only Appointments was the #1 most popular job of those who took the survey. With an average salary of $65,563.
When looking at the data specific to our business, we narrowed down to California (the state we mostly staff), and Athletics Specific (the setting we staff) and Clinic Outreach (our business model), here is what was uncovered.
For Athletics Specific Setting: median salary is $76,738; or $36.89/hr
For Clinic Outreach: median salary is $60,000; or $28.85/hr
*where appropriate, a total of 2,080 hours per year is used to determine the hourly rate of annual salaries. This is a well-documented total calculated by multiplying 40hrs/wk by 52 weeks. Despite most ATs working more than 40 hours per week or less than 52 weeks, we used a standardized average to stay consistent with standardized data
Salary Survey Compared to Market Research
Worth noting, that when comparing our data to what was reported in the 2023 NATA Salary Survey for District 8 (where California resides), the mean hourly rate should be $40.97 ($85,222 divided by 2080). In the market research we shared above, where we examined positions posted from May 2023-March 2024, there was no region where they hit this average. In fact, in all cases, it fell short by:
San Diego averaged a 21% lower hourly rate ($32.39 instead of $40.97)
Sacramento averaged a 23.3% lower rate ($31.44 instead of $40.97)
Napa/SF averaged a 12.5% lower rate ($35.88 instead of $40.97)
LA/OC averaged a 19.2% lower rate ($33.11 instead of $40.97)
Seeing such discrepancy, this caused us to take a look at CA (removing Hawaii and Nevada from the results). This showed the average salary to be $80,000, which is 6.3% less than the D8 average; accounting for some of the discrepancy. But still leaves 15%+ difference between our market research and what is being reported in the NATA Salary Survey.
So then we turned to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS), who also aggregates annual data on professions, salaries included. Here are extractions, as of May 2023, where the data accounts for approximately 28,480 ATs in the US:
National mean wage is $61,540; approximately $7.3k and 11% lower than the Salary Survey results.
In looking at the states with the highest employment of ATs, California shows a mean wage of $72,840. Which is about $7k and 9% lower than the Salary Survey results.
Some potential factors that could be contributing to discrepancies in the data:
Population Sampling. When looking at the NATA Salary survey, the total number of participants was 7,844, which represents approximately 15% of the known profession numbers. For the CA only survey results, there were 402 total respondents. Which represents 5.1% of the total respondents for the national survey of 7,844. The sampling of this size may be too small to accurately capture salaries that are then extrapolated out for an entire state or region.
The BLS data has a much larger sampling size, citing 28,480, representing 57% of the known profession numbers (approx 50k) and nearly 4x the amount of recipient information than the Salary Survey.
The Market Research conducted by ATvantage is only taken in the regions we staff, not the entire state or nation. So although industry agnostic, its sampling is still only representative of job openings and salary offerings in those selected regions.
Data Collection Methodology. Differences in data collection methods between salary surveys, BLS aggregation, and job openings research can impact results. Surveys rely on self-reported data, while job openings research gathers data from actual job postings, and BLS utilizes open sourced information from the internet, which may all lead to discrepancies in in the data.
Timeframe. Salary surveys and the BLS reflect historical data or projections for future salaries, while job openings research provides real-time data on current salary offerings. Changes in economic conditions or industry trends between the timeframes of the surveys and job openings research can contribute to differences in reported salaries.
Addressing the CATA Per Diem Rate
As a business, we made the strategic decision to discontinue accepting contract services for "per diem" type work back in 2019, a choice grounded in a multitude of factors. While often conflated, part time work is not per diem work. While we do still offer part time work (less than 2080 hours per year), the nature of per diem work is vastly different, as is demonstrated further down by the characteristics it is defined by. As we reflect on the evolving landscape of Athletic Training (AT) since the onset of the pandemic, we remain steadfast in our belief that this decision was indeed the correct course of action.
In light of recent recommendations from the California Athletic Trainers' Association (CATA), we find it imperative to address certain discrepancies apparent in their cited research. Not because we offer per diem work, but mainly because it has led to a lot of confusion and misinformation, which needs to be looked into and clarified. We have diligently conducted and published our own comprehensive research for numerous years, and upon comparing our findings with those purported by the CATA, significant variances have come to our attention. Consequently, we feel compelled to highlight and scrutinize these differences to ensure clarity and accuracy in the discourse surrounding AT practices and guidelines.
Upon reviewing the California Athletic Trainers' Association's (CATA) updated recommendation for Per Diem rates released in March 2024, it became apparent that significant gaps existed in their cited research, prompting us to conduct our own thorough investigation.
One aspect of concern was their reference to a purported "2020 median pay across numerous states for per diem services, adjusted for inflation, of $53.00/hour (NATA Salary Survey)." However, upon scrutiny, the NATA Salary Survey actually shows a very different number. According to the White Paper, the highest average is $10/hr lower.
Furthermore, it appears that the California Athletic Trainers' Association (CATA) employed a less empirical approach in determining cost of living expenses within various regions of California by utilizing the website "www.bestplaces.net" and basing calculations on the disparity percentages between living costs in other parts of the country versus specified California regions. This methodology lacks the rigor and precision typically expected in such assessments.
In contrast, a more scientifically grounded method would involve leveraging Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) statistics spanning the past 3-4 years to ascertain the variance in Cost of Living Allowance (COLA) within each region compared to the national average. Fortunately, we possess this pertinent information:
In 2023, the national average for COLA stood at 5%, while specific regional variations were: San Diego = 5.3% , Napa = 5.3% , OC/LA = 3.7%, Sac = 6%
In 2022, the national average for COLA was 7.9%, with regional variations as follows: San Diego = 8.1% , Napa = 7.6% , OC/LA = 6.7%, Sac = 7.8%
In 2021, the national average for COLA was 4.2%, unfortunately we didn't do region specific research for this year
When we compound these rates over the years, we arrive at the total for each region. Mind you, these are the rates, INCLUDING national averages, we are not only doing the difference between national and CA (we're being generous here!)
San Diego (5.3+8.1+4.2) = 17.6%
Napa/SF (5.3+7.6+4.2) = 17.1%
OC/LA (3.7+6.7+4.2) = 14.6%
Sacramento (6+7.8+4.2) = 18%
Utilizing these figures and adding them to the $53/hour baseline (which still remains unidentified), the adjusted regional rates should approximate between $60 to $63 per hour:
San Diego: $62.32
Napa/SF: $62.06
OC/LA: $60.74
Sacramento: $62.54
If using the actual data provided in the NATA Salary Survey for Per Diem rates ($43 at the highest), we see that the increases should likely be about $50/hr when accounting for the cost of living difference in CA.
San Diego: $50.57
Napa/SF: $50.35
OC/LA: $49.28
Sacramento: $50.20
In addition to the numerical discrepancies, a significant concern arises from the lack of a clear definition for "per diem" as defined by the CATA or by the NATA in their research or survey results. Without contextual understanding, it becomes challenging to interpret these recommendations accurately. And unfortunately, if used incorrectly or in the wrong context, an athletic trainer might struggle to justify their compensation with inaccurate information. If using the NATA Per Diem Best Practices guidelines, it would be assumed that the positions in which they are referring to carry the same characteristics:
Requires Personal Professional Liability Insurance
Working as a Licensed Healthcare provider in the state
Negotiating Payment
Providing a Written Contract
Providing Electronic Medical Documentation
Creating an Emergency Action Plan
Negotiating Supplies & Equipment
Securing Informed or Written Consent to Treat
Since the ability to work as an Independent Contractor was widely restricted and mostly irradicated with the passing of AB5 in January 2020, it can be assumed most Athletic Trainers are no longer representing themselves as solo providers, and or that organizations are no longer hiring ATs as independent contractors. Consequently, several responsibilities typically associated with independent contracting, such as negotiating payment terms, providing contracts, managing electronic medical documentation, devising Emergency Action Plans, negotiating supplies and equipment, and securing consent, may no longer fall within the purview of Athletic Trainers.
Which begs the question, in what capacity they are referring to "per diem," under what circumstances they believe these recommended rates are applicable, and in which settings or populations they believe it is best suited for. Without clear guidance on its usage or circumstances, this recommendation can be misinterpreted. The research presented here strongly suggests that it should not be used to negotiate ongoing or even part-time positions. Our findings from NATA, BLS, and our own market research indicate that the recommended hourly rates are not aligned with reality.
As a profession who operates on Evidence Based Practices, we would have hoped the methods of research put out by a state organization in a formal statement of pay would have been more thorough.
For all the reasons outlined above, ATvantage has made the decision not to utilize the recommended rates. We believe it is essential to critically evaluate recommendations and ensure they align with the realities of the profession and the needs of the practitioners and organizations involved.
